Five Trading Steps

  • 1. Define risk
  • 2. Define a trade style that matches personaility and beliefs
  • 3. Define one or two strategies for choice of style
  • 4. Back test and forard test method
  • 5. Trade with partial risk and earn the right to increase risk.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Bank Index Negativly Diverged Nov 1st by: Kerry


Banks negatively diverged from the SP500 and did not participate in the recent rally to new highs.
They now have formed lower highs. This along with weakness in small and mid caps show why this market has been so thin and market breadth so weak.

When we have these type conditions, most long strategies are not following thru. Only a few stocks are working and many of those have been difficult to find good risk reward entries.

All the best!
Kerry 

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Trader's Feedback


Hi Kerry,


I want to wish you  a Happy Thanksgiving and many thanks for everything. My trading has become less stressful and much more manageable thanks to your guidance. I am posting my November equity curve and proud to announce it is my best month thus far. I am only trading a $40,000 account and I am up about 5% for the month. Prior to working with you I had never experienced a winning month. I always managed to keep my losses small but each and every month I would lose a few dollars. I know I have much more to learn as a new trader, but I finally feel I am on a path of understanding and proper direction.


The dip in my equity curve this month was a very impulsive trade and it cost me. Had it not been for that one trade I would be up over $3,000 dollars for the month.
It only takes one trade to diminish your results. I now have that trade posted on my wall to remind me that impulsiveness takes away from one’s hard earn profits.

I am taking the remainder of the month off for the Holidays and will use the time to relax and take my mind off the market. I am looking forward to December to continue my new found discipline and see what my trading brings me. My goal is to trade near impulsive free for the next 3 months. I will allow myself to have 1 impulsive trade per month as I do not feel my discipline is strong enough currently to eliminate all my impulsiveness. Compared to a few months ago I am 10 times better than I was before and now had my first winning month. With only a few days remaining, no need in risking my profits and will go experience some much needed down time.

Thanks again for great advise and help.

Warmest Regards,
Jim P.

 _________________________________________

Jim,

Always great to hear about other’s successes and their growth as a Trader. Best wishes and Happy Holidays!


Sunday, November 22, 2009

Over Trading and Impulsive Trading creates stress.


Reduce Stress, Increase Profitability

Those of you that are Spike Members will have read this in SpikeSpeak, but I wanted to share ti with all my clients this evening and post to the Trade blog.



The best time to look for trades is when the market is closed.  Do your research when it is not flashing, gyrating, and trying to seduce you.  It is next to impossible to make good decisions while listening to the intraday noise. This takes years of practice and immense discipline.

Intraday monitoring reminds me of the Greek story of Odysseus.  As Alex reminds us in “Trading for a Living”, Sirens were sea creatures of Greek myths who sang so beautifully that sailors jumped overboard and drowned. When Odysseus wanted to hear the Sirens’ songs, he ordered his men to tie him to the mast and to put wax in their own ears. Odysseus heard the Sirens’ song but survived because his system would not let him jump.

The market acts like those sirens.  It seduces us to enter trades we should not make, and we see our mistakes only after the fact.  It pays to tie yourself to the mast and put beeswax in your ears, so as not to fall prey to the beautiful singing and dancing of the market.

I had to tie myself as a trader because I used to have an issue with jumping on anything that moved. There used to be days I would have 20 to 30 trades, but nothing to show for them. By end of the month I could have over 400 trades, and can you imagine the commissions?  I would earn a gold-plated Christmas card from my broker.

Several years ago I decided to limit the number of stocks that I monitor intraday to 10. I set alerts to look at them when they reach levels where I must make go / no go decisions based on my chosen strategy. I am forbidden to look for more trades during the day. I either get a trade out of my 10 monitored stocks or I don’t trade that day.

Furthermore, I go through my analytic process every night, and if I cannot do my nightly homework, I am not allowed to trade the next day.  This prevents impulsive trading when I want to watch the markets hear the Sirens.  I do not have a mast in my office, and so figuratively I tie myself to a chair and put beeswax in my ears.



Friday, November 20, 2009

Trader's Corner

Ditto Ian’s thoughts, I sit down every night and watch your report to see how you played the day.

 

This week I’ve been paper trading the system by putting in the setups for the WPT, and then day trading the 9 minute chart, every day has been net profitable, and I can compare what I did during the day to what you did to see how I can refine.  My confidence is rising again, and I hope to start back with real money again J.

 

Todd

 

 

Trader's Corner

Kerry

 

I was just listening to the Market & WPT video reports and thought how important they are to me (and I'm sure to many others).

 

Both the market internals and individual stock discussions are extremely useful.

In particular I like the individual trade discussions as it gives us all an insight in to what we should be looking for from our trades.

Although the WPT system may not be what everybody trades their is enough 'meat on the bones' for us all to learn something. It may be just a small comment that lasts a few seconds, but that small comment can ignite a spark and give us that 'aha' moment that eventually (hopefully) leads to a refinement in our trading.

 

Many thanks

 

Ian F

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, November 13, 2009

Gold Market Update


As we mentioned a few days ago that Gold appeared to be getting over extended in the short term (daily) and intermediate term (weekly). Both time frames had approached their 3ATR’s.

Yesterday Gold futures market formed a V1 sell trigger. It now looks like it wants to make the next pull back. How far is anyone’s guess. Make sure you have a plan according to your time frame.



Thursday, September 10, 2009

Quote

Many outstanding intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important. This is not rocket science. However, it’s much easier to learn what you should do in trading than to do it.

 

By: William Eckarddt

 

 

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Traders Feedback

Kerry,

I have been reviewing your new videos (particularly on market view). These are really very succinct and much easier to follow. The short format of the videos is excellent, because attention spans can be relatively short for some people. I am now getting a far better understanding of what daily bearish divergences mean in a market with strong upward momentum (on weekly) and I take particular notice of the McClellan Summation, McClellan Oscillator and NH-NL. Previously, I was looking to sell everything on the first sign of negative divergences, but it is now clearer what the daily bearish divergences mean (caution, and sign of potential correction, which is healthy), but definitely much more significant if they appear on weekly data. The McClellan Oscillator is at a very low level right now, so it will be interesting to see indices action over the next day or so.

I am also seeing the benefit of your patience waiting for the right setup and focus now on a small number of trades with better setups. This has made a significant improvement to my trading, and is a particularly important discipline as I progressively take larger positions relative to what I was doing 12 months ago. You may recall that we discussed gold on our last conference and I have been accumulating Ozzie gold stocks on weakness over the last 8 weeks and today was significant payback day for them (or the first of a few more?). I have become much more selective about what I trade and when I enter/exit and don’t mind waiting for a bigger pop, particularly if my risk margin is small. Although we don’t talk every week, you will be pleased to hear that the benefit of your experience is rubbing off on me, although I haven’t bought a sports car yet!

It has been a real challenge to learn to trade in a variety of different markets and I get the impression that a lot of American traders just stick with their own market, or use ETF’s that hold foreign content if they feel adventurous. I see real benefits in trading the US and ASX markets because of the benefit of knowledge that you get from one market which can be applied to the other in trading strategies. The Australian market, while not exactly an emerging market, is much less mature than the US markets and fires particularly well when the greenback weakens and commodities rise. Not sure if you are still interested in trading the ASX or using CFD’s, but if so, I can show you a lot more when we meet. CFD’s are a magic tool provided you apply the same risk management rules for normal equity and I will use them more and more as my trading develops.

Keep up the great work.

Regards

Graham

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Top Ten Ways to Lose Money

Everyone has a Top Ten….. Here is top ten ways to lose money trading. Add some additional ways if you like.

 

1.       No Specific Trade Plan or System, trading impulsively.

2.       Trading a New System/Strategy without knowing its expectancy. Do not back test or forward test, trading on blind faith.

3.       Un-realistic expectations, looking for get rich quick systems and searching for the Holy Grail. Looking to trade for the wrong reasons.

4.       Trading too large a size for the account.  (#3 feeds #4)

5.       Making too many trades for the account size. Trading is boring many times and most people want to be entertained.

6.       Trading on hope rather than accepting the markets actions. The market will do whatever it is going to do, regardless of your thoughts, hopes, and dreams.

7.       Un-willingness to accept a small loss. All large losses begin as a small loss.

8.       Letting winners turn into losers. Only believers in Buy and Hold strategy should never sell. A profit cannot be taken unless you are willing to potentially leave some money on the table.

9.       Un-willing to scratch a trade when the trade is not working as planned, the trader switches to #6.

10.   Not reviewing past performance and learn from mistakes. Do not expect different results if you keep doing the same mistakes over and over. Keep doing what you are doing and you will most likely keep getting what you are getting.

 

 

Monday, August 3, 2009

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Objectives and Golas

What are your expectations for your trading? This is vital to understand as unrealistic expectations will tend to lead you down the path of searching never finding what you hope for as the expectancy is not real.

The three biggest pitfalls for traders are impulsive trading, expecting too much and incorrectly position sizing. These issues will defy anyone success and turn a positive expectancy system into a negative expectancy system.

If you have not identified your Trading Objectives, STOP HERE!

Take the next few days and identify your Trading Objectives/Goals.

Goals should consist of the following criteria.

Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Realistic
Timely

I want to make money is NOT a SMART goal.
I want to be a full time trader is NOT a SMART goal.

I want to achieve an average an income of $10,000 dollars a month over the next 12 months sitting by the pool sipping margaritas is NOT a SMART goal. Unless the pool is filled with money it does not meet the A or R part of the SMART goal.

I want to achieve an average income of $3,000 dollars a month over the next 12 months utilizing a $250,000 account while keeping my risk within 2% of my account. I want to achieve this working 20 hours a week trading a system that will give me a win expectancy of 90% is NOT a SMART goal. 90% does NOT meet the R part of a SMART goal.

BUT....

I want to achieve an average income of $3,000 dollars a month over the next 12 months utilizing a $250,000 account while keeping my risk within 2% of my account. I want to achieve this working 20 hours a week trading a system that will give me a win expectancy of 60% IS a SMART goal.

The above statement is Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Timely. We can measure this goal as it is specific. It appears Attainable and Realistic and we can measure within a time span to see how we are progressing.

The S, M and T parts of the SMART goal is easiest. The A and R parts may be uncertain depending on your experience. My suggesstion is to learn to make $100 dollars before you try to learn to make $1,000.

Once you indentify a winning expectancy system and learn to trade it successful, it is a matter of account and postion sizing to meet your goals.

Once your objectives and goals are identified we can identify the trading tools you will need to achieve these goals.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Quote

The difference between most losing traders and a super successful trader is NOT in the system they are using. It’s in the position sizing and their psychology.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Quote

As has been noted by many notable experienced traders over the years, successful investing means doing some things that may make you uncomfortable. You need the courage to do the things that others find difficult or impossible to do.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Trader Results

Kerry,

I’d worked with financial advisors to manage my money over the last 15 years, and realized after 15 years of paying management fees on an annual basis, that I was about break even… When the market corrected for me over 40% on a $1M + portfolio, I knew it was time for me to learn to trade my own money. My financial advisor ignored 6 months of downward movement before I finally squealed and started to look hard at my statements. His response was ‘the market will recover’. I was 100% invested in Mr. Market. This was my catalyst for realizing that financial independence isn’t financial independence if you are relying on others to handle the money necessary for financial independence. I was still dependent on my financial advisor to perform, and communicate what was happening, how we were doing, if I could spend my money. That said, I paper traded for 3 months after reading Trading for a Living, and did ok, having some wins and losses. When I started trading real money in November of last year, the initial losses and inexperience helped me understand why so few people learn to trade for themselves – the emotional swings were brutal. We began working together in March of this year when I realized I had to develop a system that works for my schedule as a full time consultant, father of two small children, etc.

Here is my equity curve since I began trading with you in March. Having a system to trade doesn’t make me an overnight better trader as much as it exposes my flaws so I can focus on them and become a better trader. Having no system meant I had no areas of resistance or support to based my decisions, I was doing well, and then doing poorly, but I could understand why? In following your simple trend trading system, I’ve realized that when I do something really dumb, I can immediately figure out why it was dumb (poor money management, impulsive trade with no plan, ignoring the basic rules (buying a full position at the 1 ATR instead of the -1, etc.). This means I don’t have to make the same mistake again, and if I do, I get to go back to the same short series of 3 questions?

1) Did you have an entry plan? (price action, position size, technical agreement

2) Did you have an exit plan? (price action, position size, technical agreement)

3) How will you explain this trade to your wife? (my accountability partner). I am trading a $250,000 account, and I write myself a check every Friday for my work week performance. My wife asks me how I did, and telling her I wrote a check is not something I like to explain… I’ve found this for me is the ultimate accountability and keeps me out of risky trades when I realize I may go from receiving a check to writing a check, I net out my account every Friday back to $250,000 through receiving funds, or contributing funds.

Thanks for all your help… I’m pretty sure I’d be in a different position this year without your help and coaching. As of this last week I’m up 17.22% since we started working together in March and I’ve only traded the WPT positions and a few select stocks in the financial services industry where I have some experience. I’ve learned that for me my biggest losses were in order: short trades, trades without a plan (impulsive), and trades where I transitioned from a specific trade plan to hope as my primary strategy…

I have a long way to go, surviving numerous jumps from my ground floor office window after making really bad trade decisions, but overall I’m starting to believe that this is something that can be learned if you are willing to master one system completely before you find another shiny object – the mind wants to move to something else to avoid seeing how hard it is to simply follow your very simple trading rules. That’s the discipline for me, execute this flawlessly – and in doing so exorcise all my personal trading demons.

Regards,
Todd B.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Q/A - Any suggestions on following the WPT system?

Kerry,

I am having trouble mimicking the results of the WPT system. I am profitable for the year but nowhere near the how the system performed. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

I realize part of my partial result I was not able to take every trade.

Thanks!

This is a very good question and there is no great answer.

Rarely will anyone duplicate any system results precisely. Remember that the reason for me posting the system and tracking a public portfolio is to help show how to trade a system and follow it in a discipline way. I prefer to teach how to trade not be followed blindly. Regardless of the system duplicating results is nearly impossible. However it is there to show the potential of a system and results could be obtainable within a margin of error. I do not have enough data to suggest what that margin of error is, but I have seen results from others that were within 5% - 10% on both sides.

One client has reported much better results and this was due to the fact he caught trades I missed although his largest drawdown is also larger than the Discretionary Portfolio. This particular client has a much deeper risk appetite than I. I have seen other results that are within a small margin of error. How close one mimics the portfolio is determined how exact one trades the portfolio.

For example if you were to miss the two largest winning trades, the results will have a very different look. This month if one did not take the re-entry on SQM, you make $2,500 less in the portfolio. If you scratch SNDA and do not hold it, one makes $5,500 less. If you attempt to only trade one of the picks, you may pick the one that lost money and not trade those that made the money. My suggestion is take the model portfolio and learn how to build and develop your own system that you are the most comfortable with so you are NOT trying to mimic someone else. I would much rather see you develop yourself into the type of trader you desire to be with a system that works for you. Some traders find that the WPT approach works for them and they produce results very similar. Make sure you are not expecting the same results but trading in a very different approach.

Not long ago I worked with a client that had a very similar question and thought he was following the WPT system. After analyzing his account, he realized he was doing everything but following the system. He made trades that were never made, did not honor the discretionary stops and was not honoring the system stops. This allowed much larger losses than system ever encountered. In the end he found he was only haphazardly trading the list of stocks showing up on the WPT buy list and not trading a system at all. He was also position sizing in the trades incorrectly. He has since corrected many of these issues and since has found better results. He continues to admit he has some discipline issues and allowing losses to be much worse than necessary. I am recapping his story with his permission, he only asked for his name to be withheld.

Trading is NOT a get rich quick scheme. To be a Professional Trader takes time and education like any other profession. I have said many times, that no other profession in the world can we wake up one day and say “I want to be a Professional Trader” and within 10 minutes we can be in business trading.

I would suggest we arrange some phone consultations or an on-site visit may be worthwhile. We can conduct an account analysis and indentify what may be the road block to your success.

Thanks!

Kerry

Friday, July 17, 2009

Trade Results

Kerry,

First I have to say a BIG thank you! Last year I lost over $40,000 dollars gambling in the markets. I say gambling as I had no trade procedure to follow. I realized this after contacting you to help me with my trading losses. Prior to our first few calls I thought I had a trading system. Your work help me indentify I was not following my own rules and allowing the market to spin me in circles. This was in the fall of last year and I closed my brokerage account as you may recall. I simulated trading after we had worked together refining my trading process and began trading live again first of this year. Attached is my equity curve. I struggled early in the year but since have learned to keep all my losses minimal and avoiding the disastrous losses.

I am far from recouping my $40,000 loss, but I feel I have more control over my trading than ever. I started this year with a $50,000 account and risking 1% on my trades and I am up $7,000 for the year. My win ratio is 62% and most importantly my maximum drawdown is $1460. My return this year is equivalent to 24% on an annual basis. This is by far the best I have ever done, plus I feel more relaxed and calm when I have trades on. I set a goal to try an average $1,000 per month this year. If I can accomplish this I will increase my risk by ½%.

I trade fewer stocks that I scan from a custom built list that you help me indentify. There are weeks that I have very little to trade and sometimes nothing at all. This has been difficult to learn and to remain on the side lines during these times. You can see it reflected in my equity curve.

Bottom line is I am hitting my goal and I am positive with a nice return on a small account while I feel 2000% more relaxed.

Thanks again for all the help and I look forward to our working together in the reminder of the year.

Regards,

Robert

Robert,

Thanks for the comments and allowing me to post to the blog. It has been a pleasure working with you and I look forward to your growth and success as a trader. As a Traders coach, one can only suggest possible improvements. The trader implements them and see’s them thru to success. You deserve the credit more than I for achieving your new found success. I wish you the best in achieving your goals and if I can ever assist in any way, please let me know.

All the best,

Kerry

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Quote

In discussing a situation with a fellow client I thought I would make a post as a Quote Today.

The Un-willingness to accept a Small Loss when a Trade is NOT working

AND

The Fear of Missing a Move is the two main causes of Trader’s Mortality!

Stay discipline to your trading process, if you do not have a process, you are making trades on hope, fear, and greed. Make sure your process indentifies setups you prefer to trade and then indentify that your setup has a winning probability. If you do not have this process indentified, than you trading system is in-complete. Once you have a system in place, it is only your willingness to follow that system that will protect you from the two emotions mentioned above.

Thanks!

Kerry

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Q/A - What strategy is best to use to become a consistent profitable trader?

A: You may be surprised by the answer I give.

The answer is NO one strategy is going to make you a consistent profitable trader. Many traders hate to hear this answer and I hope I do not disappoint you. The only thing that will enable you to consistently pull money out of the markets is YOU. One does need to use a strategy that demonstrates a profitable tendency. If it was all about the strategy, then trading would not be so difficult. We would buy a program to run the strategy and hold our bag open for the money to drop in it. YOU must have discipline, learn to control losses, and YOU must be able to take your profits. YOU must eliminate fear to trade, the fear to lose, and the fear of missing a move. You must be able to control the emotional and psychological problems that prevent success in trading. This is the difficult part of trading. Most learn chart reading and analyzing markets, but most never master the psychological aspects of trading. That will be your biggest challenge in learning how to trade with any strategy. Rather than guessing what you will do with a strategy, know what to do and then act. Right or Wrong, you will not know this until after the fact.

As a personal example, I have traded the strategy I use today for many years. A few tweaks here and there but the core basic strategy has remained. The first few years I lost at trading this strategy and most any other strategy I attempted. The major change was me and how I controlled my impulsive trades, contained my losses and captured the profits when I had them. This will be true no matter what strategy or style of trading you use. Market conditions change and run in cycles, not all strategies work in all conditions. The most difficult lesson was to learn when NOT to trade.

My personal system is set up in a way that tells me when to trade and what strategies to focus on. If I have no strategy for the current condition it is up to me NOT trade.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Finding Consistency

We always here and I certainly talk about finding consistency. What is consistency? What does it mean to you?

One must define it, to know it. It is why I routinely encourage traders to identify what they are trading for.

What exactly do I mean when I say this? We all know we are trading to make money or that is what the purpose is supposed to be.

Let me ask the question this way.

I have a job that requires one to come in and go thru a process of questions and at the end of the day lay a report on my desk.

The report is due every day at 9pm NY time. There will be days it takes longer to run the process than others. You may work 1 hour a day or may work 6 hours a day. At the end of the process there is a report that is required to be given to me. I will not pay you by the hour; I will pay you a salary at the end of the year, quarter, month, week or end of day. This is your preference how to be paid.

I need to know two things. How often do you want to be paid and how much?

The work is a series of questions that I will need you to answer and deliver a written report to me at 9pm each and every night, Sunday – Thursday. I will not need reports on Friday or Saturday.

How much do you want to earn to do this work? Can you determine a fee that this will be worth your effort and time to accomplish? If you find a way to do this work in 1 hour or 6 hours makes no difference to me. I am taking offers please let me know.

Once I know this number I will in turn let you know how much it will take to go into this business. I forgot to mention this is not an employment contract. This is a business venture you must invest in. The amount you want to earn doing this process will be determined by how much you are willing to invest in your new business. First you must determine how much earnings you want to make that will make it worth your while to partake in this business venture.

The investment will not be given to me, you will keep it in any account you prefer and close that account at anytime you choose. You have sole discretion over your investment and can change your mind at any time. Failure to execute the report properly will affect the outcome of your investment.

If one does not know what they are looking for to perform this job, than we will have a hard time determining what sources and tools we need to accomplish our request.

The other issue is realistic expectations. If one has expectations to go into business looking to invest $10,000 to make $100,000, well those offers are only on late night TV, called infomercials.

For me personally, I like to trade fairly conservative. I prefer to try and hit a lot of singles and doubles and not go after too many home runs. The times I went after the home run, it ran me home crying.

My personal style is fairly boring and routine. Most of the trades are never that exciting. Most are never catching bottoms or shorting tops. I do like to trade a few counter trend setups from time to time. Majority of my trading is looking to make 2 - 5% each month as consistently as I can. This means I am looking to have very little drawdown’s and try and grind out small profits with a small basket of markets. If I am trading a $200,000 account I want to make about a $4,000 - $10,000 per month. If I can find opportunities that will present this to me and do it consistently, I have a chance to make 20 – 50% a year. I realize I will not make $1,000 - $2000 each and every week. There will be weeks I lose money and weeks I make $5,000. I attempt to work a process that will give me the opportunity for $1,000 - $2,000 per week. I also realize I give up trying to catch every single market move. I know I only need to catch moves that have the opportunity to achieve my monthly income. If I can accomplish this over time and minimize my losses, I will show a good return on my account.

Most Traders focus too much on the next great thing, the one strategy that will ultimately become their printing press for money and solve all problems. Unfortunately that thinking will drive us to lose money in more ways than we can imagine. It is important to recognize what you are trading for and then discovers the tools and discipline necessary to achieve those goals. Too many traders are chasing moves and not focused on their process and goals.

Once I focus on what I am to do, I become less focused on what the market will or will not do. I focus on what conditions I have and if I have opportunities that meet my criteria. If have no opportunities that meet my criteria, my discipline is the only thing to keep me from making mistakes that I will regret. The market will flash its lights in front of me and tempt me to make trades I have no desire to make.

For example, recently SNDA was a nice setup that fit my criteria. The stock gapped up and never looked back. I did not get in the trade, why? My criteria (trade plan) calls for me not to chase if I do not get the trigger based on my criteria. The trade worked out well only without me profiting from my analysis. If I am going to throw out my trade plans I might as well not make them and trade on my gut. The problem with this is my gut has always had BIG losing trades. My discipline is the only thing that will allow me to follow the plan. I have my instructions and I am to follow. Not following the plan and I am discounting the plan is worthwhile and lack faith it will lead me to where I want to go. The plan will not always be perfect and I will miss opportunities, but will the plan allow me to achieve my goals ver. time? I can always trash the plan and build a new one; I can revamp my plans so that it will help achieve my goals in a better way. I must have something to follow that gives me high probabilities to achieve my desired outcome. If I cannot achieve my goals may be I am just too un-realistic or the plan has no merit what so ever. One will not know if the plan has merit unless it is fully back tested or better yet tested in the real world of trading.

If you want to make $100,000 out $10,000 you are likely better off to go to Las Vegas and have a good time and you just may hit the jackpot.

The WPT Portfolio follows a method to grind out 2 -5 % on average a month. Thus far we are close to achieving this. It is yet to be seen if we will achieve it the rest of the year, we shall see.

It is not the most exciting way to make money and it is not as fun as having those big 20+% moves in a day or two. I rode my share of roller coasters and I prefer a more calming ride as drifting down a slow moving river knowing I will reach my destination if I stay on course.

Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of ways to trade the markets. There are some methods that will provide exhilarating moments. You just have to know when to place the bets and the conditions are prevalent to make those types of trades. You must be willing to place a bet that will win big or lose it all bet. A few weeks ago a client wanted to work out a trade in the financials and make a $2,000 bet. We structured the trade in a leverage market and he anted up. The trade worked out very well; however, it appeared he may lose it all at one point. His $2,000 bet was only worth about $400 dollars only after a few days. He called asking should he bail and salvage his $400. I asked him why and he proceeded to tell me it looked like he was all wrong and he might as well take the trade off the table. I asked him if he was not serious about wanting to risk $2000, which was the original plan. He was going to risk $2,000 dollars and willing to lose it all to see if he was right. There was nothing different currently than in the original plan; everything was the same except he now thought it was not going to work. The original plan was to lose $2,000 or the oversold condition in the market would be relieved followed by an explosive move to the upside. The play was to risk the full $2,000 and look for a 15+% rally in the markets within one month’s time frame. This was a bet on the financials and was a lottery ticket play. The trade netted $6254. The client was about to take a $1600 loss because he thought it was not going to work. He began to second guess his decision and pull his bet off the table. When the trade appeared to go sour he was no longer willing to embrace the full risk.

The guy called asked how I knew not to get out of the trade. My answer, I did not have a clue. For all I knew the market was going to keep running down and he was going to lose his remaining $400 dollars. I told him if he was willing to risk $1600 why not the other $400 and let the original plan play out. Let’s continue watching the game and see who wins. It is easy to risk other people’s money!

What occurred was when he put the trade on he thought he was making the trade at the right time. Therefore he thought he was willing to lose $2,000 because he was convinced he was right and would never see his $2,000 dwindle down to $400. The client had a good plan and he understood the plan. The issue is he really did not think the market would go down any lower. He was only willing to experience the loss because he believed he would not ever have to accept that loss. Once he realized he could lose his $2,000 he decided he did not want to play this game.

$2,000 is not a huge bet in the markets but it is decent size bet depending on one’s account. This was a small bet compared to the account the client has to trade. He hates to lose more than $1,000 at any one time. I have seen this on numerous occasions. He will lose $500 and not blink an eye. If he loses over $1,000 he is mortified. A $1,000 dollar lose is less than ½% of his account, yet it is the fact it is more than $1,000. When he thought this trade was going to lose him more than $1,000 he was ready to bail. Matter of fact, he told me latter that had he not called he would have bailed as soon as he got his losses under $1,000. Was this in the trade plan? Not at all… The plan called for holding some options for one month and see if the move he expected would occur. In order to play he wanted to pay $2,000. Once the trade went sour the first few days and exceeds the pain threshold, all bets were off and the trade plan was ignored.

Remember nothing had changed. The market conditions were the same, very oversold. The size of bet was the same; he did not overtrade and average down. As a matter of fact the trade was looking even better, but he was sitting on a $1,600 loss. His trade had 3 – 1/2 weeks left, he was only three days into the trade. It was a very well thought out simple plan. Nothing complicated technically or fundamentally, just a speculative bet that within 4 weeks we would see a significant rally. The trade turned out well for the client in less time than projected.

The 10% of doubt he had in the trade and looking at a $1600 loss in reality was enough to say I don’t want to play and never wanted to make this trade. He wanted to close the trade out so he did not have to accept a $2,000 loss. The market had convinced him he was about to have to do something he really did not want to embrace.

Most of us are willing to embrace any risk if we know the outcome. If we knew the outcome it would not be a risk. As Mark Douglas talks about in his book “Trading in the Zone” one must embrace the real risk. This is another part of the Trade Plan, truly know and accept the risk you are taking, if you do, managing of the trade becomes easier.

I have experienced and seen many times Trades performing really well for months only to change the size of their risk and begin to trader vastly different. Make sure you grow your size incrementally and you are placing bets with risk you can truly embrace. Most importantly, never place a bet that is not based on some viable trade plan. Even if it is only a speculative trade plan.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Q/A - Quote

Every so often I get emails that if I took the name off the email; I would think I received the same email over and over. It may be worded slightly different but they all say the same thing.
Over the past few days I have received emails that basically said….
I just went through my basket of stocks and they all look the same? I can’t find any good setups. So, what do you do?
Here is a quote by the famous Jesse Livermore. He bankrupted many times but each time he rebounded to trade successfully to always pay his creditors back in full with interest.
What beat me was NOT having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market ONLY when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.
Part of one’s system and process is to tell you when NOT to do something. It is the most difficult part of trading mastery to learn the discipline to sit and wait. The only person that believes you should trade all the time is your broker. They are the only ones that benefit from such transactions. It is a falsity even for day traders to think they are to sit in front of a screen 6 ½ hours a day and trade every minute of the day.
The main purpose of the WPT portfolio was to be published and demonstrate one process and one style of trading in as real time as possible. It was not to demonstrate the best way to trade. It is only the best way if it meets your goals, objectives and fits your personality and life style. There are times where there has been nothing to trade. Maybe due to market conditions that did not favor our play or due to lack of research and thus one had to do nothing.
Forcing trades is rarely a winning proposition.
You design a process of trading to tell you when and when not to do something, then learn to careless what the market does. You want to be concern if your process is taking you where you want to go.
My favorite quote:
“It is hard enough to figure out what the markets will do; if you do not know what you will do, the game is lost.”

Monday, March 30, 2009

Opening Gap Post Comment

Hey Kerry

A few weeks a ago you posted a couple of questions from one of your clients (Dan) regarding trading the opening gap. I really got a lot from these postings and since last Monday have successfully traded the Australia 200 Cash $5mini contract gap opening every morning I've had the opportunity. I'm making $50 - $150 in 6 - 12 minutes. I'll begin trading 2 contracts this week and as I feel my competence and confidence improve I'll increase my position to 3 contracts in the coming weeks. This has had the positive effect on my swing trend trades in the last week also. You never know when you post something on the blog just how it may influence another trader.

Ryan

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Discipline Exercise made the difference

In all the books you read and all the advice you get from Traders, the number 1 thing you hear is, Be Disciplined. What does that really mean, and if you're not disciplined, how do you become disciplined. I have found being disciplined as a trader is very different than being disciplined at work, the gym or other things in life.

Discipline and focus is what makes you a good trader, but how do you get there?

I have spent the last 2 years learning technical analysis, swing trading and after the market crashed last year, learning to day trade. I was no longer willing to take a trade over night after the crash. Now I'm focused only on day trading and trying to develop a system that works. My biggest obstacle is I am not being focused and disciplined to my system. The system works fine, as long as I remain in control of impulsiveness to make trades that my system does not call for.

In October of 2008 I was day trading SPY and DIA and a few stocks. I typically made about 10 to 20 trades a day and usually had losing days or small winning days of $ 20 or $ 30. Losing days were in the 100s occasionally getting into disastrous losses of $1000 in 1 day. The worse the day went, the more I would raise my position size. This always resulted in bigger losses. This had to stop. It was driving me crazy.

I kept thinking, if nobody knows about these losses, I'll make the money back quickly and it will be like it never happened.

What I did do?
I started sending my results each day for review to Kerry, no matter what those results were.
For a time I would send a screen capture of my TradeStation screen to prove I didn’t trade for the day if there were no trades.
I had to make myself accountable to someone, otherwise I would cheat and who would know?

Each day Kerry would send me a critique of my day. He would review positive points of the day and what needed improvement. During this time I had a few days of high trade count and big losses. The advice on how to handle bad days was a key turning point. This helped to not throw you off your plan for the next trading day. Each day I would consider the previous day’s advice, and little by little, my results started to improve. I started to understand what discipline is for a trader and why it works.

Today I am much more relaxed as I trade, I focus only on making good entries and managing a trade well once I'm in. I keep my position size small and concentrate on making good trades, not making money. I make a few trades a day, at most about 6 trades. For the month of March I have traded 13 days and 11 were profitable. I have become more confident about what I will and will not do, and it improves my decision making thru out the day.

We hear all the advice and little catch phrases about how to become a good trader, but I say, you have to live it to really know what it is to be a disciplined trader. Once you are there, you will understand and it will be the only way you will ever want to trade. Working this closely with Kerry has been a turning point for me.

Thanks!
Tim H

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Cutting Losses

Losses must always be cut and they must be cut quickly, long before they become of any financial consequence. After the elimination, the transaction must be, in a sense, forgotten. It must be left out of future consideration completely that there is no sentimental bar to reinstating the position at a higher level, either very soon or at a later date. Cutting losses is the one rule that can be taught with assurance that is always the correct thing to do. However, as a matter of actual application, it requires a completeness of detachment from human frailties which is very rarely achieved. People like to take profits and don’t like taking losses. They also hate to repurchase something at a price higher than they sold it. Human likes and dislikes will wreck any investment program. Only logic, reason, information and experience can be listened to if failure is to be avoided.

An excerpt for the book…

The Battle from Investment Survival

By: Gerald Loeb

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Traders Corner

Kerry,


As this seems to be "Equity Curve Week" I thought mine may also give some encouragement. The interesting point is that it was back in August that I decided I needed to review what I was doing and seek some guidance from you. You can hopefuly see the results since then (and it has been a tough time in the markets over this period too of course). The percentage gain is relatively small but that is purely because my work is keeping me very busy and so I have been trading very lightly and so have missed numerous signals.


Trading is now nowhere near as stressful as it used to be. I know exactly the game that I am playing even if I don't play it as well as I could.


One interesting point is that the trades I have been making since August have been almost identical to those I made before. The difference is that my entries are now well defined rather than me just blindly buying the market. Trading really is a typical case of where a chain is only as strong as the weakest link. In my case the weak link was my entries.


Still a long way to go of course but the direction is the right one now.


Regards,


Chris




Traders Corner

I love getting feedback from clients and fellow traders. Here is another email I just received today. Jeff is wonderful guy and a good friend, not to mention a good stock picker. I always pay attention when Jeff mentions a stock. Here shared an email this morning and I asked him to elaborate on the difference in his trading, here is his reply and many thanks for letting me post to the blog.

Hi Kerry,

Here is my equity curve for January. My picks have gotten better, but I have also been more consistent at taking profits. You’ve played a big role in these results. Thanks!

These are the main reasons for my results ( December was also good and I was profitable for 2008 ).

1) I spent much more time on a short list of about 10 favorite stocks and really got to know how they trade and what is and is not out of character.

2) I focus much more on support and resistance on all time frames. I tend to sell as we approach resistance and if we keep going, I don’t worry about it. I’ve always had a tendency to kick myself if I get out too early or if I don’t get out and it drops! That leaves a narrow margin where I’m not kicking myself. Now I’m focusing more on my account goals rather than “being right.”

3) I also like to buy closer to support so my stops can be below that support. I’m also using volume much more to determine if the short term trend is running out of or gaining steam.

4) I am trading smaller with proportionally wider stops so I don’t have to be as precise in my timing.

5) Probably the biggest thing is that I’ve really cut back on questioning myself. There have been many times where my analysis suggested I enter a position but I would talk myself out of it. The same applies to exits. I would see a stock hit a ceiling and stop going up and I was afraid I would sell and be wrong. Now I sell and if it goes up further, no big deal.

Jeff

Equity curve minus impulsive trades

In working with a client today we reviewed the recent equity curve. In doing so we indentified those trades that was not traded based on an indentified strategy. I suggested that he take his equity curve and remove any trades that were impulsive and re-plot the equity curve, keeping only those trades that were made based on an indentified set of rules.

Here are the results and his comments.

Hi Kerry,

I've omitted some of the trades that we determined as impulsive or no strategy trades...

Attached is the result.. I've printed it out and it is hanging on my wall now, to remind me what is possible and what can happen if I impulsive trade again.

Wessel



Trader's Corner

I just received this comment from a client, I asked his permission to share, so here it is.

Keith had a tremendous habit of over trading. He never really over traded from over exposure, but his broker had to love him. I am sure Keith received a Christmas gift from his broker each year. I asked Keith to allow me to share this info and he agreed. When we done his account analysis we found that over half his losses were due to commissions alone. It is called churning ones account. The losses were never that huge, but the losses were many as Keith traded about 20 times more than necessary, never really riding a winner nor riding a loser…just churn and burn. It is very stressful way to trade and a guarantee that one will not make money at this game.

Keith has worked hard as he has stayed in touch on a very regular basis. I honestly told him one day that I expected him to give the game up. Keith proved me wrong and has persevered and stayed in the game. I can attest it was not easy and Keith spent a lot of time revamping the way he thought and his approach to trading. Honestly it was like watching a drug addict go thru detox.

I wish Keith much success as I do all the clients I work with. Trading is a difficult path to take. It is very rewarding when one finds his/her own.

All the best to Keith, and hope some of you find his message as up lifting as I do.

_________________________________________________________________________



What a difference in a year...

Here are the key points and it may seem so simple, but what a huge impact it has made in my account. Thanks for all the help!

  1. I trade less because I have learn to be more patient for my type of trades.
  2. I truly understand the type of trader I am and the condition I need for my setups to work.
  3. I established written trading rules to follow and have memorized them. I never feel the need to impulsively trade. I know exactly what I am looking for.
  4. I manage my time using alerts so I don't stare at the screens. I have learned that's it's OK not to have a trade. Rather than watching every move, I have alerts to tell me when to watch the screen. If I have no alert, I never look at the chart.
  5. I am always assessing risk and not profits. Many times this alone has kept me out of several bad trades. If I do not like the risk, I let the trade go without me.
  6. My equity curve tells the story and I can determine more quickly when I have a trader issue and need to reduce size. I look forward to updating my equity curve each and every week.
  7. I do the 5 largest loss exercise once a quarter. I don't wait for a year.

Most of what has helped has nothing to do with a new strategy or indicator. I can't believe how far my trading has come along. I was ready to give up on trading, but your encouragement to implement these simple tools have turned my trading around 180 degrees. I never had a winning year until now.

All of these improvements have come from your videos and phone consultations. The one week personal visit was invaluable. That visit alone is what made me realize just how much I was over trading. I always thought a trader was suppose to be trading all the time and always looking for the next opportunity. After spending a week with you and seeing how profitable one could be making only 3 or 4 trades per week was an eye opener.

Learning to stop over trading and correctly position size is incredible. I trade less, make more money on my trades that do work, and spend less time. I almost feel guilty at times. Your analogy of having a boss come in and telling me to take the day off for doing such a great job was idea. Now I listen to the boss (Mr Market) if he tells me to take the day off... I am out of here.

Thanks for all you do, I likely would not be trading today had it not been from your encouragement and willingness to persist I get control of my trading issues.

Prior to this past year, my biggest one total for trades was 57 (yes 57 trades in one day) it would take me 6 months to have that many trades now. On average I am making 5 -7 trades a week.

My goal is if I can prove to myself I have a positive equity curve for another year like this past year, I will increase my trading size to full positions.

I now have a 5 year plan in place, as I have 5 more years before I plan to retire. Then I plan to trade full time. I feel I am prepared to work my plan and feel in control of trading, rather than my trading is controlling me.

Many Thanks!
Keith P


Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Trading is about Consistency not racing to a Finish Line

Many of you have heard me talk about Consistency. The success of a Trader is how consistent they become in their trading.

I would rather have a nice consistency to my trading rather than a roller coaster ride of huge profits and losses. I have done both and I definitely prefer consistent.

A client that works for Disney had one of their cartoonist draw a picture with this saying. It was a wonderful surprise when I got back from traveling for two weeks.

I am posting a pic here and taking it to be framed today. I thought I would share with all.

Many thanks for the pic!

Monday, January 26, 2009

GBB

Having trading troubles, then you may need a little GBB!
Get Back to Basics…
1. CUT YOUR POSITION SIZE DOWN–Trading with the same amount of shares while you are losing money is a disaster waiting to happen. Reduce size until you start winning.

2. BE PATIENT–Wait for your perfect set-up. It is important not to over-trade. One must know the set up they are looking for. Many times waiting is the best position to take.

3. REVIEW your bad trades–it is one of the best tools to actually see what you are doing and learn what NOT to do.

4. REVIEW RULES–Always helpful to read over and reevaluate your trading rules. Keep them near you while trading, review often. It is one place where a cheat sheet is advisable.

5. VISUALIZE–Visualize a good trade. From seeing the perfect setup to executing the trade to exiting the trade. Know what it looks like.

6. MAKE ONE GOOD TRADE- This is all it takes and then build on it. Repeat what is working.

7. TAKE A DAY OFF –Clear your head and get perspective. It’s ok to skip a day of trading. It is the only way you guarantee yourself a NON losing day.

8. KEEP PROFITS–If you are up on the day, set a tighter stop loss to keep your profits, do not let a winning day turn into a losing day.

9.PREPARE– Preparation is Key for success!
Remember the most important part of your trading is you the “Trader”

Friday, January 23, 2009

China GDP

Many of you that have been clients for a while, may remember discussions about China slowing after the Olympics.

We discussed how the GDP would likely slow to 5% for China and this will seem like a harsh recession for this country. That scenario is playing out based on the latest data.

China's real GDP growth slowed to 6.8% for the 4th quarter. The continued contraction suggests that GDP growth will continue to fall. While most
countries and their stock markets would be jumping , this isn't the case in China. Most economists suggest that unless growth is over 8%, China cannot absorb the 20 million plus new workers that join their work force every year.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009